S&P 500 to see a deeper fall to a cluster of supports at 4,195/4,136 – Credit Suisse

Economists at Credit Suisse view the bounce in the S&P 500 Index as temporary.

Resistance at 4,490 capping on a closing basis can keep the immediate risk lower

With weekly MACD momentum having crossed lower though and with 10yr US Real Yields expected to rise further we view this as a temporary and corrective rebound ahead of a retest and then we think break below 4,302.

Below 4,302 would then be seen to open the door to the next meaningful support cluster seen at the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2022/2023 uptrend, key rising 200-DMA and January high at 4,195/4,136. With the uptrend from the March 2020 low seen not far below at 4,102, we would look for a better floor to ideally be found here. 

Resistance at 4,490 capping on a closing basis can keep the immediate risk lower. Above can see a retest of the 4,607/4,637 key resistance, which we would look to cap again.