Fed Preview: Three scenarios and their implications for EUR/USD and USD/JPY – TDS

Economists at TD Securities discuss the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and its implications for EUR/USD and USD/JPY.

More Hawkish (5%)

Fed delivers a 25 bps rate hike but also commits to additional rate increases as the data has evolved firmer than expected. Powell signals that more interest-rate increases are likely needed. USD/JPY +0.50%, EUR/USD -0.20%.

Base Case (55%)

Fed delivers a 25 bps rate hike, without fully closing the door to additional rate increases. We expect Chair Powell to reiterate that the Fed remains data-dependent and that economic data since the May FOMC meeting has not shown convincing signs of slowing. USD/JPY +0.25%, EUR/USD -0.10%.

Dovish (40%)

Fed skips a rate increase but signals that further hikes are possible. Powell mentions that the best course is to be patient given the totality of policy tightening as well as the ongoing reduction of credit supply. A soft landing is becoming more likely. USD/JPY -1.0%, EUR/USD +0.60%.