USD Index to test crucial support at 102.50/103.00 on a decline in US Core CPI below 5% YoY – SocGen

Economists at Société Générale analyze how could US inflation data impact the Dollar Index (DXY).

Inflation will drop off sufficiently in May to convince the Fed to deliver a first pause

It would take a momentous deviation from consensus for CPI to change the script and the market to hedge a higher probability of a 25 bps hike.

The assumption is that inflation will drop off sufficiently in May at the headline and core levels to convince the Fed to hold fire and deliver a first pause. 

Super Core, i.e. Core services ex-housing, moderated last month to 5.1% YoY from 5.8%, and a decline below 5% for the first time since March 2022 would probably seal the deal for a status quo. This should in theory stir some relief in the long end of the Treasury and swap curves and could guide the Dollar towards the crucial support zone of 102.50/103.00. 

See – US CPI Banks Preview: Headline inflation is moderating, but underlying persists