US growth bulls and bears are talking over each other now – SocGen

Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, discusses the US growth outlook and the current Dollar trend.

Four steps down and then three steps up

“US growth bulls and bears are talking over each other now, rather than debating anything. Money growth has collapse, the credit impulse is negative, the curve matters and so do bank failures, but the labour market’s too tight to mention. Or, to put it another way, the economy’s slowing, but from a ridiculously strong growth rate.” 

“How long it will take for growth to grind to a halt is very hard to quantify, and that means that while the Dollar’s downtrend is intact, it’s going to continue being a story of 4 steps down followed by three steps back up (with a funny walk thrown in for good measure), for the time being.”