RBA likely to keep its policy rate unchanged again in May – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities say that they don't expect the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) April policy meeting to offer any surprises.

RBA likely keep its policy rate unchanged again in May

"In their recent speeches, Governor Lowe and Deputy Governor Bullock made it clear that the RBA wanted to pause to assess the impact of the rapid rate hikes and the economic outlook. Thus, we expect the Apr Minutes to follow closely to the content of their speeches and don't expect any surprises. Again, the Minutes will emphasise the "long and variable lags" of monetary policy and the uncertainty from the upcoming mortgage roll off."

"We doubt the Board will place much focus on the Q1 CPI print in their discussion but rather steer their discussion on the importance of the aggregate data flow. We still think the Bank is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged again in May as a single month is unlikely enough time for the RBA's assessment. A hike after pausing potentially adds more confusion to the RBA's message."