Dollar will be significantly weaker in six months’ time, but be wary in the coming weeks – SocGen

Dollar bulls have been shaken. However, Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, warrants caution before confirming the turn of the Dollar.

More twists and turns before Euro’s clear uptrend towards 1.12 emerges

“We are confident that the Dollar will be significantly weaker in six months’ time, but we remain wary in the coming weeks. There are still traps for over-enthusiastic bears.”

“In Europe, we’re confident that we have seen the low in GBPUSD, but not 100% sure we’ve seen the low in EURUSD. After all, the Russian elephant is still loitering in the corner of the room. EURUSD has broken out of its downtrend, but there will be a few more twists and turns before a clear uptrend towards 1.12 emerges.”

“Where we are more confident is in Asia/Pacific; the yen has continued to track 10-year Treasury yields and if they have peaked, so has USDJPY.”