USD/JPY: Risk of further tests of the 150 level – Rabobank

This year’s weakness in the JPY vs. the USD is well documented. Economists at Rabobank still expect the USD/JPY to test the 150 level in the next weeks.

USD unlikely to give up a significant amount of strength for some months

“The combination of the BoJ’s accommodative policies and the terms of trade shock have been weighing heavily on the JPY this year and are set to continue to do so.”

“It is unlikely that the MoF has been expecting to be able to turn around the value of the USD/JPY exchange rate with its FX interventions. More likely its actions are probably aimed at scaring off speculators and slowing the pace of JPY falls.” 

“Market speculation regarding the possibility of a Fed pivot will be welcomed by Japanese policymakers insofar as it has impacted the robustness of the USD. That said, given current headwinds to world growth, we don’t expect the greenback to give up a significant amount of strength for some months.” 

“We continue see risk of further tests of the USD/JPY 150 level on a 1-to-3-month view.”