US: Focus on ADP’s payrolls data and initial jobless claims - Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank suggest that today’s main releases are the ADP’s payrolls data and initial jobless claims ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Report from the US.

Key Quotes

“With the hurricane season left behind, the data should no longer be affected by any distortions caused by the storms. The consensus expects new payrolls to come in at 190,000. If the actual data is broadly in line with this estimate that suggests the official data should also be back around its pre-hurricane trend.”

“The ongoing strength in the labour market has been one of the pieces of the Fed’s inflation puzzle. Despite the unemployment rate being well below the natural level estimated by the Fed, this has not yet translated into solid wage-driven inflation dynamics. Although it remains to be seen whether employment will continue its strong performance this year, further labour market strength should certainly add to the head-scratching at the Federal Reserve. Will inflation finally pick up as a result of a tight labour market? Or is the labour market not at tight as it seems, and is there still a long way to go, as labour market participation remains low and underemployment remains an issue?”