Australia: Retail Trade Survey set to provide a softer signal - ANZ

In view of analysts at ANZ, after a strong run, the September quarter Retail Trade Survey of Australia looks set to provide a softer signal and they have pencilled in a 0.2% q/q fall in total sales volumes.

Key Quotes

“In many ways, a softer result just reflects a natural pull-back after Q2’s figures were boosted by tourist spending associated with the World Masters Games and British and Irish Lions rugby tour. In Q2, food and beverage services was the largest contributor to the increase (+4.2% q/q), with accommodation (+6.1% q/q) and liquor retailing (+7.8% q/q) also up strongly. However, we suspect there will also be some underlying softness as well. While the labour market is clearly still performing well, which should continue to support spending growth overall, the weaker housing market is likely to have had some impact.”

“Certainly, the underlying trend in recent ECT figures has been on the soft side. How the consumer fares against a cross current of reasonable income growth but soft housing market is arguably going to be one of the most important factors determining the strength of the broader economy over the next couple of years.”