NZ: GDP dragged down by weaker primary production - TDS

Analysts at TDS note that the NZ Q4 GDP (P) missed expectations as it came at +0.4%/qtr (mkt +0.7%), and even further below RBNZ’s expectations of +1%/qtr.

Key Quotes

“GDP was dragged down by weaker primary production (-1%) and the Nov earthquake may have played a part in the softer outcome.This report is likely to see the RBNZ deliver a balanced outlook at next week’s OCR decision. Despite the growth miss, the next CPI is likely to carry more weight, as the RBNZ has been watching this more closely, GDP less so. The odds of a Nov hike are now closer to 40%.”