US Elections: Should not rule out a Trump victory – Danske Bank

Research Team at Danske Bank, suggests that the recent developments in both national and state polls show that one should not rule out a Trump victory in the US elections.

Key Quotes

“According to the average of national polls, Trump is enjoying the biggest support since the Republican convention and he has once again managed to comeback, exactly as we warned. The lower risk appetite in recent days is mainly due to election jitters as markets have repriced the probability of a Trump win. FiveThirtyEight.com now calculates the probability of a Trump win to 35%. We think it is likely that the presidential election will be closer than people expect. While the Republicans seem likely to retain the majority in the House, it is going to be close who will win the Senate.

The closer the election is the later we will get to know the result on Wednesday morning. Looking at the 2012 election, most media declared Obama the winner between 5:12-5:38 CET. The Senate was called to be Democratic at 5:43 CET. The House was called at 07:30 CET.”