EUR/USD advancing to the 1.1500 level in 2024 is very feasible – MUFG

US CPI data for October sparked the largest sell-off of the US Dollar since – coincidentally – the same October CPI report in November 2022. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze USD outlook.

Big USD sell-off marks potential for more to come

We suspect the scale of the sell-off of the Dollar on Tuesday could also prove meaningful and mark another turning point that sees the USD extend this weakness further.

The Fed is now even more likely finished its tightening cycle. A rate cut by May 2024 is now an 80% probability with 85 bps priced by November 2024. There remains plenty of scope for further cuts to be priced if the activity Data starts to weaken and in those circumstances, EUR/USD advancing to the 1.1500 level in 2024 is very feasible.